Sunday, March 24, 2013

The best way not to start a war with China?  The best way not to start a war with China would be if a country had to borrow the money from China in order to start the war with China.   And that’s why, in my opinion, all the conjecture about the US invading Syria and Iran is just that, conjecture.  Why am I so sure of this? 
I recognize that the US would dearly love to go into Syria and clean that country up first and then move on to Iran.  Clean it up? Yes, like in Iraq, kill as many people as needed to make way for US demolition and construction crews, new US military bases, air bases, private armies to capture the oil and other resource productions, train a new, sufficiently rugged police force (one willing to use torture and murder) and in general confiscate billions of dollars of US tax money in personal enrichment of US public and private personae.
 You remember the regular “shock and awe” procedure.  The kind that Bush loved to sink his teeth into, along with Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Donald Rumsfeld, Condi Rice, etc.  But “shock and awe” takes money, besides the usual propaganda that has to be churned out: (regime change, chemical weapons, weapons of mass destruction, Al Qaeda, etc.) to start the enterprise going.  But the US debt is gorged already.  And the American people in general are getting wise to “shock and awe” as well as getting tired of it.
And there are more complications. China and Russia will not allow the US to invade Syria or Iran.  These countries are in their backyards.  But how would China actually react to a serious threat of a Syrian and/or Iranian invasion by the US and Israel, with or without UN approval? First, I think, monetarily. China owns most of US debt already and buys heavily when US bonds are auctioned.  In fact, China is keeping the US afloat by buying US debt. 
If China stopped buying US bonds and called in all the ones they already own, the US dollar would spiral downward to an unworkable point.  Or the other scenario…if the US tried to sell war bonds to private money, or just simply started printing whatever money was needed to go to war,  this would cause spiraling in the other direction…into hyperinflation. Yes, both of these scenarios would also impact China’s financial world. But China is an intelligent country and certainly not into bankrolling a rival country that appears to have lost its sense of direction as well as its marbles.    I think China and Russia are reasonably sure of Obama’s decision making in the matter, while Netanyahu of Israel is more problematic.  Netanyahu seems more inclined toward the World War Three option even if it should destroy the world.
Obama is not exactly into World War Three and he seems to have conveyed this message to Netanyahu on his recent visit. Obama said (more or less) look, man, we have to be cool about this. Turkey is right there beside Syria; instead of invading Syria which will rile up Russia and China, we ought to consider courting Turkey.  You pick up that telephone and call Turkey and tell them you’re sorry for killing those Turkish young people  (eight Turkish nationals on the Turkish boat with the Gaza Freedom Flotilla)  who were just trying to do good and tell them you will compensate their families (give’em some money, that’ll fix it).  And Netanyahu picked up the phone, called Turkey, apologized and said there would be compensation.  Turkey accepted the apology and presumably the money.
So the US and Israel will now concentrate on trying to convince Turkey to invade Syria for them.  And maybe China and Russia won’t even notice. But Obama’s big job is to convince the right wingers in US congress and the US military that World War Three really would not be a good idea, so forget about attacking Syria and Iran.  Obama needs to make the US congress and the US military understand that the good ole days of “shock and awe” may have just hit an impenetrable wall… The Great Wall of China.

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