China, Canadian Canola and Soy Beans

 

What is happening with Canadian canola crops and perhaps our soy crops as well? First off, China has suspended buying Canadian canola altogether.  Why?  Because China claims that Canadian canola seeds have rather suddenly become not pure enough for the Chinese market. They claim that Canada’s canola seeds now have pests. As China buys 40 percent of Canada’s canola seeds this is serious indeed. On April 2, 2019 the CBC posted another reason why China may have canceled their usual orders of Canadian canola; “But, there has been speculation that the allegations of dirty canola are a red herring, and the clash is really about worsening geopolitical relations between the two countries as a result of the detention of Meng Wanzhou (Chinese CEO of Huawei) late last year”.

 

I think the second reason is more likely.  Or “highly likely” as the Americans and Brits are fond of saying when they have no proof of anything.  But considering the eagerness of the Trudeau government to jump twice as high on directives from the US, there was obviously no time spent by our government either before or after Ming’s arrest to take a long look at other options. Options that would not have infuriated China.  Were there other options?  Are there other options?

 

Some quarters say that yes, there were (are) other options, but to take them and not arrest Ming or to refuse to hold her indefinitely, would have infuriated Mr. Trump.  But all that China seems to know is that Ming is being held for a hearing on extradition to the US by Canadians on US charges of fraud.  An interesting thought occurred to me while thinking about this. As far as I know, Huawei of China is the first to use in their electronic systems something known as the G5.  The G5 evidently is a much faster system and the US doesn’t have it yet.  And they want it badly. What do they really plan to do when Canada gets Ming extradited to America?  Threaten to give her life in prison or until the time she gives up the secrets of G5? Keep her in solitary confinement?  Or as Trump believes in physical torture, perhaps they will use a little bit of that?

 

Whatever, the situation also has the soy bean growers worried.  Ron Davidson, executive director of Soy Canada (The Guardian, (04- 07-2019) expressed his own concern; “We’ve gone from a third of our exports going to China to over 60 per cent in 2018.  Product that would have gone elsewhere has gone to China and made us very, very dependent on that one market…I can tell you there is a great deal of nervousness...We’re not in the canola dispute now but who knows what happens tomorrow”.  

 

Indeed, who knows?